No More Armchairing
“Well, that’s pretty silly, they should just...”
I’m sorry, but let me stop you right there. Just don’t.
No, Zef. No.
Before you share your wisdom and all your amazing insight, let me tell you a bit about yourself — or any other human for that matter.
Yes, you are very smart. Yes, you know a lot of things. While we’re all lucky to be in the presence of such brilliance, this comes at a price. The price is that you think you know it all. That you can judge all the things. You have all the answers, and out of sheer altruism you share all that wisdom with whoever will listen.
From your armchair.
“They just spent 6 months building that! What a disaster. I could have have told you it wouldn’t work out of the gate.”
Hindsight bias, also known as the “knew-it-all-along phenomenon” is the common tendency for people to perceive past events as having been more predictable than they were.
“I’m not a business nor product person, but you know what, we should just charge $8 for that blue checkmark. We’d earn a ton of money. Why didn’t those silly-billies think of that before?”
The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people with limited competence in a particular domain overestimate their abilities.
“Of course he would say that. Classic Eddie thing to say. He doesn’t understand the basics when it comes to engineering.”
Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values.
Distance simplifies things.
You kick back in our comfortable chair. You see what’s going on here. You light a cigar. You share your wisdom.
“They should just...”
It feels great. It’s easy. And often, you’ll get a laugh.
Also, it’s toxic and potentially destructive.
Because it’s exactly this type of judgment that spreads easily, whether it’s warranted or not. It’s entertaining. It gets a nod: “oh dude, tell me about it, them, amirite?”
So don’t, Zef. Don’t.
Fight the urge.
Instead: dig.
Talk to the people involved. Ask clarifying questions. Understand what the context was. What happened. What they considered. What the pressures were.
But that sounds like a lot of work!
This is what you will find, practically always:
Actually, things are not as simple as they seem.
Actually, there is no way they could have known how this would pan out given what they knew at the time.
Actually, given the deadline, what would you expect?
Actually, you weren’t aware of that one key part of the story.
Actually, these people are competent after all.
Actually, I should show some frickin’ humility, because I may not be as smart as I think I am.
So, my dear Zef, as much as I appreciate you, and you’re a gift to humankind. Just shut up.
No more armchairing.